Yes
That is the short answer. Pretty unsatisfactory though. I will require more detail.
Let’s start by making some assumptions about seeds and bonus.
- I cannot believe I am writing this sentence, but let’s start with seven #1 seeds (125, 149, 157, 165, 174, 184, and 197).
- Using HVI’s @El_Jefe ‘s work on estimated seeds for the other three weights I am assuming #3 at 133, #14 at 141, and #9 at 285.
- Total bonus points estimate of 35 (based on 34 in 2024 and 34.5 in 2025).
That comes to 192 points if wrestled to seed and slightly exceeding last year’s bonus (157+35). Missed by that much.
So, Where Can PSU Pick Up 8 Points?
Could PSU get 43 bonus points? I guess, but given that the record is 40 that seems unlikely. Instead let’s focus on placement and advancement points.
- The obvious choice here is Cole Mirasola. As an assumed #9 seed he is looking at no placement points and typically only 2 advancement points. However, improving four slots to fifth place should net him the extra 8 points. That was easy.
- Also in the running is Braeden Davis. With about 1.5 advancement points for finishing in the 13-16 range he has similar upside if he finishes fifth, but a much less probable path.
- As an assumed #3 seed Marcus Blaze can only pick up an incremental 6.5 points placement and advancement points by winning it all. For him it would need to be some from column A and some from column B (for bonus).
Do or Don’t Do. There Is No Try.
Now let’s talk about the odds of Do.
For this I will use Penn State specific odds from the Cael Sanderson era. There is a sizeable difference between those and the field odds I normally use when talking about everyone.
- Under Cael Sanderson, Penn State has had 30 wrestlers earn the #1 seed. A fairly absurd 23 of them went on to take the title. At almost 77% per wrestler, the odds of all seven doing it this year are ~16%. Rough start unless you consider using the field average only gets you 0.5%.
- As mentioned above, to get the other 8 points we need Mirasola to finish fifth or better. For a Penn State #9 seed that has happened 40% of the time (2 of 5 – both first place finishes – but one was Starocci, so…. whatever, I am going with it).
- Sadly, no wrestler seeded in the 13-16 range has finished any higher than seventh, so we need something unprecedented here from Davis. I am not going out on that limb.
- But there is another way. The odds of any two of the three outperforming is between 4% and 11%. Not quite Mirasola odds, but not nothing.
Final Answer? Final Answer.
Putting it all together, the chances of all seven #1 seeds winning a title, Blaze finishing third, Mirasola finishing fifth, and Davis finishing in the round of 16 is roughly 2%.
While that may feel small, it is light year’s away from what anyone else has ever produced.
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