Jacob from Ohio State writes, “Since there has been so much scrutiny over Ohio State being number one for a week or two, can you give a post on how it’s possible to win?”

Before I get into the gory details, let me just say that as a Penn State fan, this one hurt a bit. But as a numbers fan it was an interesting challenge.

Let’s start with a purely quantitative analysis before we do something a little more qualitative.

Just The Numbers

I thought I would start by going to my happy place (author’s note: if you don’t care how – only want to know what – then skip this and the next section). What is the percentage chance that Ohio State beats Penn State come March? To answer that question, I am starting with Flo rankings in December which look a little something like this:

From there I can bring in my expected points model to make final score predictions:

So right now, Penn State is expected to score 16.2% more points than Ohio State.

Percentages Matter

I noticed you used percentage difference. Why?

The challenge of figuring out probabilities for individual scores is that the distributions are very much non-normal, and they differ from seed to seed. A #1 seed has nowhere to go but down, and a #33 seed has nowhere to go but up.

But what I found is that the natural log of percentage change is very nearly normally distributed for higher scoring teams. This gives us an in. Using z-scores we can calculate things like the probability that Penn State scores 9% fewer points than expected (35.9%), or that Ohio State scores 8% more points than expected (33.7%). Furthermore, we can combine these to calculate the probability of both happening such that Ohio State slips past Penn State (12.1%).

But there are other scenarios too. What if Penn State just falls flat and drops 17% of their expected points while Ohio State holds serve? That would be enough for the win. Well, there is a combined probability of 14.2% that happens. Or flip it around, what if Ohio State goes on a heater jumping to 136 points while Penn State merely hits their expected total? Same story, about 14.2% chance of that happening.

Final Answer? Final Answer

So, let’s call it a 12 to 14% chance Ohio State beats Penn State based on assumptions piled on top of assumptions in a rickety, late-game Jenga tower of questionable math.

But…..

Are ya done, nerd? Let’s talk real world, down and dirty in the trenches, hand-to-hand combat. Who wins?

All the above math ignores some things like path dependency. If Ohio State and Penn State wrestlers were to meet in the championship bracket, based on current rankings, it could happen in round 2 for the heavies; the semis for 133, 141, 149, 165, and 174; and the finals for 125, 157, 184, and 197.

Based on that and relative rankings, Ohio State could do the most direct damage to Penn State at 197. If #10 Luke Geog can pull off the upset of #1 Josh Barr, it would have the potential to be a pretty big nut punch for Penn State. The other two big opportunities to help themselves while hurting their opponent come at 149 (#5 Stiles v #1 Van Ness) and 174 (#4 Kharchla v #1 Haines).

Any one of those upsets may be enough to do the trick. Each one knocks at least 6 points off of Penn State’s total while adding as many as 8 – 18 points to Ohio State.

The Penn State Bump

In an attempt to make Jacob feel better I have conveniently ignored the fact that Penn State has an annoying habit of outperforming my expected points model. In 2024 they slapped the model around to the tune of a 13% beat. Then in 2025 they one upped themselves by leaving it bloody, but unbowed in spite of a 17% smack down of the expected points model.

Mind you, Ohio State outperformed by 9% and 27% in the past two seasons, but they started from much humbler beginnings in both cases. In both cases their expected points were about one third of Penn State’s. Whether they can outperform when expectations are so high is what remains to be seen.

What Do You Think the Chances of a Guy Like You and a Girl Like Me…

Of course, the expectations will change as the ranks/seeds change. Some will go up; some will go down. As the season progresses, I will revisit the probabilities.

But, like Lloyd Christmas I am saying as of right now Ohio State has a chance.

If you have a question you want answered hit me with an email at wrestleknownothing@gmail.com and I will see what I can come up with.